Why Putin will do whatever China asks him to do

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photo. PAP/EPAThe first year of the Russian-Ukrainian war was marked by talks about a possible peace. From the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, European leaders urged Kiev to start talks with Moscow, while American officials advised President Zelensky to “start thinking about his demands and realistic priorities for negotiations.” For their part, the Chinese communists presented their 12-chapter “peace plan”, which is nothing but gibberish. Just like the statement made by Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference. Meanwhile, China’s role in resolving the Ukrainian crisis may be much greater than previously believed. Over the past few years, American political scientists have written dozens of articles about Moscow’s dangerous drift towards Beijing. The main message of the publication was that the West should not “give up” Russia to China and therefore should be more friendly towards the Kremlin. However, recent events have shown that Russia acted much less rationally than China. Therefore, instead of focusing on Russia, the focus should be on China, especially when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine threatens the foundations of global stability. China can stop Putin – but it needs a very good reason to do so. At present, Beijing seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the ongoing war. For years, Moscow considered itself an equal partner in the China-Russia alliance. However, after a year of humiliation on the front lines, when the “second most powerful army in the world” is unable to capture the town of Bakhmut for six months (even with the help of thousands of convicted criminals armed with ammunition secretly bought in Iran), Russia can no longer be considered an equal partner .China – with approx. 26 percent. share in trade – they are currently Russia’s largest partner. It is the Middle Kingdom that is almost the only supplier of cars, computers, integrated circuits, as well as, for example, smartphones to the country of Vladimir Putin. China is also the most important potential market for Russian coal and gas. Moreover, Russia is very dependent on the Chinese currency in which it repays its liabilities. The yuan was the most traded currency on the Moscow Stock Exchange in February and is officially recognized as the base currency of the Russian National Wealth Fund. The weaker Russia becomes, the greater are China’s chances of appropriating its Far Eastern regions. At the same time, China must play a role in international relations commensurate with its importance in the global economy. If one googles the term “Treaty of Peking” it will refer to the 1860 Beijing Convention of “Unequal Agreement” that defeated China had to sign with victorious European nations. Currently, China’s ambition is to enter the first league of world powers, which would be possible, for example, in the case of negotiating peace in Ukraine, i.e. doing something that the West is unable to do. President Xi is the only person who can order President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine, because without the support of China, the Russian economy will not survive.
Russia’s defeat means the end of Putin’s rule and most likely his life as well. There is no doubt that Moscow will do what Beijing says if it uses the right arguments. For their part, the United States and Europe should send a clear signal to China that Beijing’s contribution to peace efforts will be appreciated by the West. For all the trouble China is causing in the Pacific, it has not invaded Taiwan.
Russia missed the moment of negotiating a grand alliance with the West that would have been built without (and partly against) China, so why not try to build a much closer relationship between the West and China, leaving Russia aside? Such a strategy could create a new, seemingly stable world architecture because economic relations between First World countries are much deeper than any of them had with Russia. But what could the West offer China in exchange for driving Putin’s hordes out of Ukraine? Political scientists speculate that the April visit of the French president to China is intended to attract the Middle Kingdom to the side of the West. China’s cooperation may be the beginning of a new global order – perhaps more stable and peaceful than the one that emerged from the Cold War … source: larazon.es

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