Forget the high inflation and the war in Ukraine. There has been a paradigm shift on the stock market where a completely different factor now determines the development going forward, according to Erik Penser Bank’s asset manager Jonas Thulin. about five shares to own in the new market situation.Published: 6 June 2022, 13:11Global Fund Manager and Jonas Thulin, Head of Asset Management at Erik Penser Bank, says that the stock market has undergone a paradigm shift – leaving behind factors such as war and inflation. “We have had major, negative world events that have depressed the stock market. What is interesting is that we have had a year dominated by negative themes – and this is the second time we try to ride on a positive theme, so we will see how long it lasts “, says Jonas Thulin. Since the turn of the year we have had six paradigm shifts on the stock exchange, where each paradigm has characterized the development of the stock exchange, says Jonas Thulin. He mentions, among other things, the Ukraine war, inflation and American political risk as some of the strongest themes of the year. ”It is a sickly exciting year. We usually manage these paradigm shifts maybe two to three times a year, but this year it hits hard “, says Jonas Thulin. Since mid-May we are in paradigm number six for the year, says Jonas Thulin and highlights a factor which he claims controls 80 percent of the Stockholm Stock Exchange’s development – and 90 percent of global stock market development. “The US economy is what drives the daily stock market development right now. Which direction the stock market takes, and how much it goes up or down – all this can be traced to US GDP statistics. That’s the biggest theme, in all categories. ”The Chief Investment Officer says that even if the market continues to follow, among other things, the development of war in Ukraine, it is no longer a factor that significantly affects the development of the stock market. ”The challenge is that for human and empathic reasons we are very focused on the war – but the market is not known for its empathy. The market is no longer trading in the war. ”Jonas Thulin says that the stock market bottomed out on May 12, and that we will now bounce upwards, at the same time as the stock market has already priced in an American recession – which creates buying conditions. “We (Erik Penser Bank, Di’s note) hardly stand out here – since mid-May, we again see positive net inflows on the stock exchange.”When it comes to individual companies, he focuses mainly on markets outside Europe. ”As a global manager, I think you have to be quite restrictive when it comes to the eurozone. It is North and South America and Asia that are the hot markets to invest in now. “In the US, he highlights the agricultural sector, and the American grain company Bunge as exciting, with the justification that the company benefits from the ongoing war in Ukraine.” Buyers turn to North America as it is no longer possible to buy from Ukraine or Russia, so they (Bunge, Di: note) get a lot of orders for both barley and wheat right now “, says Jonas Thulin. Another sector he highlights is cybersecurity. The industry has had a tough year – which gives upside potential, says Jonas Thulin and believes that the current stock market climate can benefit the sector. Sailpoint Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, Cloudflare and Crowdstrike Holdings are four US security companies that he has put in the portfolio. very good. Then we also believe in cybersecurity in general as an industry. ”How long will US GDP figures control the stock market as they do now?
“The stock market has been quite eager to praise a cyclical trend that is extremely negative. Then our thesis is that we can see a fairly large upside on the stock market, and the bounce started somewhere around May 12 – and came quite suddenly. But you chase the next theme all the time – we’ll see how long this stays. ” Jakob Gromer