To see if bitcoin has corrected enough, Willy Woo, creator of the on-chain analysis feature Woobull, analyzed the NVT signal. the high pace of the beginning of the week. Its price is now $37,234. Due to recent declines, bitcoin has reached a historic level of oversold, as Willy Woo explains. O NVT signal (NVTS) is a derivative of Dimitry Kalichkin's NVT index, which provides more emphasis on predictive signaling before price spikes.Its calculation is performed as follows:
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NVTS = Net Value / 90d MA of Daily Transaction Value.Bitcoin NVT Signal – Woobull.comThis method for valuing Bitcoin using network valuation and its traded value is a “more responsive” version suitable for traders to use.
I've updated NVT Signal to correct for upward drift in the metric (due to volumes moving off the blockchain and only L2). And yes, BTC is OVERSOLD at historic levels. pic.twitter.com/1FqTBNhuPb— Willy Woo (@woonomic) June 17, 2022
Willy Woo makes it clear in the tweet's response that: “NVTS is a short range indicator and does not select the macro scenario. For this you need the NVT index. We're still in a bull market.” If analyzed alone, the NVT index sounds pretty pessimistic. Since the last two times (2014, 2018) that this metric has reached the point it is now, we started a bear market.
Putting the analysis in the macro scenario
However, when looking at the Stock-to-flow model, we see an interesting signal. Also according to the deflection from stock to flow, bitcoin is oversold.Bitcoin: Stock-to-flow Deflection – GlassnodeIf bitcoin is undervalued, as shown in the charts, the tendency is for its price to move higher. As of August 16 of this year, the Stock-to-flow model indicates that the ratio between production and available currency stock will be 104,133. Respecting Bitcoin's scarcity fundamentals, it's plausible to assume that the price will come close to the $100,000 level. Stock-to-flow is defined as this relationship between production and the current inventory that exists and currently, the Stock to flow in 463 days is US$68,477.86 while the price of bitcoin is US$37,234. Bitcoin Stock for Live Graph Flow Model – Buy Bitcoin World Wide Putting NVTS in the macro scenario, we have perhaps a very good scenario according to Woo.
Are you optimistic about what the graphics say? Answer the Cointimes poll on the price of bitcoin on Telegram.