2 signs that we are not at the top of the Bitcoin cycle

Charlie Taylor

Bitcoin price has not yet peaked during this bullish cycle and investors treat cryptocurrency as a store of value, suggest new onchain analytics. Despite reaching a new record in 2022, Bitcoin's speed metric is still far from previous bull run levels. This means that investors are viewing BTC primarily as a store of value rather than a medium of exchange.

The status of the value reserve tells the speed of the BTC

According to analyst CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's speed is the “measure of the rate at which BTC is circulating in the economy”. In other words, it shows whether primary cryptocurrency is generally used as a means of payment – if there is high activity on the network – or as a store of value – if the activity is less. indicate that the speed started to increase in the middle of 2020 and reached a new record of two years. However, it is still far from the top during the previous bullish cycles in 2013 and 2017, suggesting that there is still more room for growth for BTC during the current race.

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Bitcoin speed (last 365 days)Bitcoin price vs. Bitcoin speed. Source: CryptoQuant and CryptoPotato. In addition, CryptoQuant said that each top of the cycle previously exhibited a “considerable bearish divergence” in this indicator. However, the company noted that "none has been formed" during this cycle yet.

Could Bitcoin still rise another 300% from here?

If we assume that CryptoQuant data is in fact showing that BTC has not yet reached its top, it is worth exploring some viable price projections recently made by proponents or presented by indicators to determine where that peak could be. Max Keizer, the presenter of the Keizer Report, predicted a price of $ 220,000 by the end of the year. Separately, the notorious stock-to-flow model sees BTC at $ 288,000, and Long Term Hodl's MVRV metric also showed that bitcoin could indeed reach these levels if history repeated itself. Bitcoin also has a similar number in view. The metric used to assess the long-term holders' confidence in the asset price is still relatively low, despite the increase in the BTC price since October 2020. CoinMetrics data shows that the last time the reserve risk was at levels like now, bitcoin's value has increased by about 4x in the following months. If that happens again, BTC will jump well over $ 200,000.Reserve Risk BitcoinForecasting based on Bitcoin's Reserve Risk. Source: Twitter and CryptoPotato.See also: Kraken CEO: Bitcoin will easily arrive at $ 1 million – see when

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